Archive for the 'Architecture' Category

Media, Technology and Web predictions for 2012

February 29, 2012

Consumer awareness, evils suffocated, design breakthrough, Screen saturation, philosophical bases, Leadership version 3.0

Screen business, Positive trends 2012, Juhani Risku Ivalo, uusi Nokia architect

Juhani Risku’s eight predictions for 2012:

  • A. Ever more global tech-media-Web companies try to access TAIC-SIMO businesses http://i.cx/aq6.
  • B. Screen business is going to saturate, China & Taiwan & Korea are strong, old farts stall http://i.cx/aq3.
  • C. Success through new abstractions & leadership, less bimbos hired http://i.cx/aq5.
  • D. Design is way more important than forming plastic http://i.cx/9f7 and http://i.cx/aq8.
  • E. Ecosystem thinking needs to be clarified, there is no third horse http://i.cx/aog.
  • F. Philosophical movement to clarifiy intentions and actions on the Internet http://i.cx/aq7.
  • G. Google and Facebook are challenged by decent and transparent business models http://i.cx/aoh.
  • H. Hostile and deceitful gathering of consumer data comes to the end of the road http://i.cx/amg.

Screen business, Negative trends 2012, Juhani Risku Ivalo, uusi Nokia architect

29th Feb 2012,  Juhani Risku, Inari Finland

abstractionshift….new-nokia….criticismcritique….kritiikkiblogi….keynotes….

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Maths for the Web, Tech and Media — priority list

February 26, 2012

Change can be envisioned, planned and executed…

… but you need visionary planners for execute. And there is a limited pool of Leonardian persons with street credibity and leadership talent to be recruited. But why do we increasingly recruit chatterboxes and bimbos?

Change has different grades and phases:

  • Patching up, symbianing to death, tremulous leadership and execution
  • Addition, adding forgotten code, “engineering”
  • Enhancement, facelift, perfuming, prettification, sissy issue
  • Upgrade, versioning, bug correction, clock speeding, new font, logo refresh
  • Development, “academic engineering”, MBA driven disaster
  • Evolution, external forces affect, things happen
  • Abstraction shift, transformation of fundamentals
  • Abstraction lift, next orbit, new dimension.

Patching, adding, facelifts and upgrades are the first signals of chosen pattern to lose. When a company’s strategic agenda is based on easy ways and gradual progress the downfall is knocking on the door.

Development is a corporate term where creation and diligence and leadership are outsourced, to nobody. Development is always too slow, roadmaps are “cautious”, nobody has mandate, nobody leads, nobody cares. Development is graveyard of ideas, passion and life.

Evolution is a free fall, it just happens out there. Evolution is big sister of development. Nobody envisions and leads evolution and still it is one of the main driftwood to take good grip.

Abstraction shift and lift are the only vehicles for success. Those are very unusual methods because the leaders in the companies should be competent visionaries, courageous and active, and committed. Only few companies like Apple, Google, Amazon and Facebook are capable to rely on abstracion shift and lift. It’s too risky. This is purely a leadership problem and that’s the reason for constant fall of nearly every company. Companies rather destroy themselves than hire competent visionaries with street credibility to redirect their business abstraction.

Lexis:

  • Chatterbox, native language speaker, blinded by power, usually MBA or similar superficial personality, historical cousins: politicians, psychopaths, Mussolini, Hitler, persons with one common feature: flood of words + lying + treachery + pretension + kim-jong-illing (or kim-jong-unning).
  • Bimbo (in professional context), man or woman elevated to a position the bimbo never would elevate herself/himself. Example of extreme simpletons finding each other (recruiter, recruit, team mates, organization, company, company strategy, company prospects, nation, country, coevals, workmates). Bimbo professional usually a man who is emotionally attractive in jargon and has a low bashfulness and modesty, but superficially suitable education. Bimbo professional appeal to incompetent superiors and recruitment leads usually to business insest (a.k.a. recruitment nepotism, prof. Ole Lange). Famous bimbos (AngBr, HwStr, MaHat, RoGan, TaHal, HP CEOs).
  • Coevals and workmates, they just don’t care. Famous bigwigs and notables of this kind allowing simpletons to destroy common achievements: Greeks, Germans and coevals globally of the Hitler era, Kodak personnel, Saab personnel).

New paradigms  suprises and mutations

Today’s successors fail because they can’t handle next epoch which favours altruism, voluntariness, art, drama, quality, critique, loyalty and trust. Success and business follows.

Abstraction shift & lift, quality, design, creation, altruism, Juhani Risku Nokia Ivalo architect

Every phenomenon has its pattern to perfection

Perfection has four steps: Primitive, traditional, modern and futuristic, Prim-Trad-Mod-Fut. First you are thirsty, then you develop drinks, drinks cultivated to cognac. You end up to raise the glass for sanctification. This pattern is an unstoppable caterpillar in evolution of civilisation.

12_Abstraction_shift-lift_Evolution-of_Cognac-Architecture_prim-trad-mod-fut_Juhani_Risku_Nokia_Ivalo_architect

Chart Evolution of phenomena 1. Two examples of phenomena becoming perfect. Drinking ends up to raise the glass, dwelling goes through architecture to sensual spaces. Any ennobling and refining process confronts forces against life, forces of conservatism and NIMBY lifestyle.

The Primitive phase is birth and DNA creation stage of phenomena. The first stress test happens in Traditional stage. Here regression, insult and destruction slams. Modern gives hope and opens new opportunities. Futuristic consummates the phenomenon.

12_Abstraction_shift-lift_Evolution-of_Cognac-Architecture-Humanity-Fashion_prim-trad-mod-fut_Juhani_Risku_Nokia_Ivalo_architect

Chart Evolution of phenomena 2. More refining patterns. Obstacles like organised education, political play, MBA governance model and “engineering” cause decadence and even kills evolution. Tradition distorts evolution and debilitates the DNA of phenomena. Tradition is the worst human invention ever.

If  Tradition could be bypassed the Modern would offer more extensively voluptuous features for coevals.

Challenges for 2013-2017: new abstractions, leadership shifts, drama, altruism, trust

1. Abstraction shifts and lifts, new paradigms

  • The only way to succeed is to shift and lift company’s business abstraction (not to cannibalise your own business)
  • iPhone was a shift from Nokia’s traditional mobile phone thinking to modern level
  • iPhone was not a lift of abstraction. To lift abstraction of mobile phones happens through formula VR + MIST UI + context awareness + tactile & sensual search + DNA of knowledge + SW development lift + Creative Community + Users trusting the actors
  • Abstraction lift is the next profitable model in media, technology and Internet businesses
  • Leadership: Ramp down MBA education, start Leonardian leadership program, fire all bimbo CEOs, bimbo SVPs, bimbo VPs, bimbo directors, bimbo politicians, bimbo presidents, bimbo prime ministers….

2. Screen-Internet-Media-Operator businesses (TAIC-SIMO model)

  • Every respectable company tries to build (at least partly) functioning SIMO model – Apple has the best functioning machine of SIMO model, Google close to Apple with a bit different angle
  • Sony would have best opportunities but they stumble with (stupid) PlayStation gaming
  • Samsung is a potential company to widen its business to Internet and media (from screens to Internet and media)
  • Suprises to wait for: Oracle, Intel, Fujitsu, Virgin etc. might penetrate to new business areas a.k.a. “Abstraction shift” (with strategic alliances, acquisitions, partnerships, consortiums)
  • Clearer ecosystem thinking clarifies where different companies are and what  their future prospects could be (http://i.cx/aog)
  • Advertisement spearheading communication and media has to be stopped (http://i.cx/aoh) “Why and how to bypass Google and Facebook with new search and social media solutions” as agenda to save our civilization
  • One new TAIC-SIMO alliance can revolutionize the future of Web, search and social media through trust, micropayments and UCC/UGC User Created/Generated content, Carrier/Operator activism, new contextual MIST UI and dynamic information visualisation.

There are two potential wonderworkers in Screen-Internet-Media-Operator chain who can make a difference in the business: the Media and the Operator. Why could those two losers make any difference? Because they are losing the most. Operators (mobile network operators) become day after day carcasses of the chain and they mutate into janitors of digital pipeline clean-up. Media has several dimensions of structural failures:

  1. Outdated print media withers away
  2. Free Web content
  3. News on the Internet
  4. Disastrous excesses: News of the World
  5. Operators (mobile network carriers) become digital pipeline janitors
  6. Operators tried to arrange media and content business but they failed.

3. New abstractions for Search and Social Media new abstractions

  • No consumer data gathering, no digital sniffing and snooping
  • Trust first, business follows
  • No cookies, no hostile and deceitful algorithms, consumers and business follow
  • More local administration and legal follow-up to Search and Social Media (no supranational hidden algorithms).

This movement prepares an epoch-making revolution to Web search and social media businesses. Billion dollar money flow changes direction from hostile and deceitful companies to egalitarian and trusted partners. As an example, Google and Facebook can be replaced by some corporations which after years of deprivation and theft start to reform. In other words, if News Corporation faces rebirth and restructures its business models it can be a trusted convener and host for successful Internet, media and technology consortium. Everyone needs a last chance to correct mistakes.

4. Organizations and Leadership

  • Smaller leadership teams to envisioning, product/service creation, design, prototyping, top team size 15-30 persons, led by Creative Officer with street credibility and proven competence (no bimbos in billion dollar business NOBIBI-DOBU)
  • Fragmented and muddled innovation and design models are outdated: you can’t lead a company with 5-10 research centers, design centers, innovation centers. Apple’s model is better: fewer persons and one site is more effective model than thousands of mediocre specialists led by bimbo directors and executives (like Nokia, Sony, followed soon by Huawei, LG, HTC…)
  • The most difficult global problem is to find creative leaders. There are 6-10 individuals from which 4 are committed to their own companies (so only 2-6 eligible leaders are available)
  • The creative leader problem besets Apple, Microsoft, Nokia, Sony, Huawei, Intel, HP, Oracle, News Corp., TimeWarner, Orange, Verizon, Vodafone…)
  • We need globally one (ONE) university to start a leadership program with totally new agenda to educate “Leonardian leaders” (it means non-MBA, non-Bimbo, non-Pompous, non-Corporation philosophy and grip).

5. User Interface  Fully contextual UI with VR, AI, SOM, 4D (MIST UI)

  • Understandability and structure of knowledge first, UI follows
  • Hermeneutic UI model
  • Screen abstraction shift & lift (MIST UI)
  • Abstraction shift & lift needed in university research and education.

Interfaces link people to essence of things, universes, knowledge and understanding. User interface is “My-connection-to-existence” which has been discarded in HCI and MMI, Human-Computer Interaction and ManMachine Interaction. Next generation interfaces need abstraction lift, Interfacelift.

24th Feb 2012,  Juhani Risku, Helsinki Finland

Screen business — what is it?

February 23, 2012

Screens are displays to interests, drama, content and media

Screen business Cinema iPad Juhani Risku Ivalo Nokia architect architecture

Evolution of the most important screen has been a blend of technology, drama, grayscales and colors. The first screen was in the cinema, the second was our TV in the livingroom. The third screen was Apple’s Macintosh. Then we got the fourth screen, black and green mobile phone display. The fifth was a bit colored phone/PDA screen with icons. Sixth screen was the early smart phone, Communicator screen. The seventh was iPad.

iPad has very strong lock-in effect because of its evolutionary and systemic bond with Apple’s culture, Macintosh and extremely functional applications and services. It is easier for Apple to widen screen abstraction to homes and urban space than for other parties like film industry, TV manufacturers, TV channels and Apple’s “competitors”.

But now we have a war of screens. Screen business is a quarter of Screen – Internet – Media – Operator business (SIMO) where companies and consortiums with full portfolio of SIMO products, services and solutions are winner. The others are losers. But there is only one screen manufacturer with full portfolio of SIMO total offering. But let’s look at Screen business only.

Juhani Risku: Screen business model: Samsung-LG-Sony-Apple-Huawei-Nokia-Fujitsu-Panasonic-Outsiders. Juhani Risku Ivalo architect

Chart Media Screens. Today’s screens start from small phones ending up to wde screen TVs. Samsung has the widest portfolio of screens followed by Sony and Apple. Nokia has screen breeches.

Many screen realizers are slaves for somebody else commanding the total business. Here the screen manufacturers are OEMs, original equipment manufacturers, for the Operation System realizers, see chart Nokia inside Microsoft. Google has several farmhands. The only free doer is Apple.

Juhani Risku: Screen business model, trends, winners and losers: Samsung-LG-Sony-Apple-Huawei-Nokia-Fujitsu-Panasonic-Outsiders. Juhani Risku Ivalo architect

Chart Media Screen trends, winners and losers. Some of the big screen actors have a positive grip to the future. On the contrary, some former big actors may fall.

Screen manufacturers have varied business models: Samsung is the leader with best design, widest product offering, high quality and top class innovation, creation and design. Samsung concentrates on products, services  and content is made by other parties. Samsung took Sony’s position when they jealously arsed around music and movie ownership.

LG is following Samsung’s pattern and soon overtaking Sony, perhaps after two years in 2014. Sony is the problem child: best brand has fallen to junk category. Superior portable music and audio has been transformed to Playstations! If you search Sony on the Internet you can’t find other Sony products and offering than stupid games.Sony should be buried as soon as possible to get a newborn Sony with new ideas and actions.

Huawei then. Huawei is like Nokia year 2004. Huawei wants to copy with shame without feeling any disgrace. Next five years may be successeful with this business model but Huawei has the fate of Nokia if they don’t start today (yesterday) own brilliant leadership in screen, media and network businesses. Huawei probably can’t do it because they don’t understand or believe it. They are going to nokiazise their demi-successful business. Trust me, I have seen what it means. It’s a pity because Huawei could be the rainmaker.

There are two companies who can suprise: Fujitsu and Panasonic. If both or one of them shift their business abstractions towards media, interoperability, search, content creation and Virtual Reality, they/the one can beat the others. Call me if you want to apply TAIC-SIMO.

23rd Feb 2012,  Juhani Risku, Helsinki Finland