Asymco made (once again) an accurate analysis and visualization, now about innovation investments.
Image 1. Asymco’s original chart & quote: “In spite of Microsoft’s, Google and Nokia’s massive R&D growth, their returns from that investment have been meagre to negative in terms of margin and only Google showed appreciable sales growth.”
Here Asymco´s chart as base for future guestimation for year 2016:
Image 2. Asymcos chart added with forecast year 2016. There are three groups outside The Wall, the Potentials are coming closer to Apple, the Piddlings are agonizing with their disorganized stragegies and actions, the Losers keep falling as independent companies.
The Wall is unbuyable: you can’t penetrate the Wall because either you are too big and boring, too arrogant and pompous or you are just too lazy and confused.
The only reason for staying in Loser, Piddling or Potential categories and not ascending North East ↗ is lack of visionary leaders with street credibility in your company. There are 10-15 companies on the chart and only three (3) proper leaders in two companies, and they already are bound to their own companies. Larry Page and Sergey Brin to Google and Jeff Bezos to Amazon. Well, and Chris Bangle at Samsung.
So what happens to those street credible companies, the Potentials?
– Google stalls because of saturation in attacking people like an advertisement stalker (but still stays far away from Losers but approaching the Piddlings)
– Amazon moves closer to the Wall but can’t reach it because of insufficient business model (TAIC-SIMO). Bezos is a real visionary and leader but Amazon should enter TAIC-SIMO model by choosing right partners
– Samsung is a bit more than an OEM (original equipment manufacturer) but not muck. Samsung is today kind of light-weight Sony from its best years (Walkmans, PSPs, stereos, TVs) and Samsung can progress by rising clock speed in production and keeping innovation factor stable.
– Nokia is unfortunately coming under bigger threat to lose everything. This makes me sad because of all efforts and open source strategies (Archive, WSJ about Book New Nokia, Nokia Rescue Booklet PDF, interviews) I have proposed. Nokia really is stuck in Microsoft´s deadly hug, must say: good for Microsoft!
– RIM, too late too nothing. RIM has lost its main assets like the secure mobile mail system and QWERTY form factor. RIM could be a tiny partner in a larger TAIC-SIMO consortium.
– HTC as a “little sister of OEM-Nokia” is not independent, it has to copy without pride, neighbours like Q’five, ZTE, Huawei and Samsung try to kill HTC. At last all OEM companies choke to death because of their trivial role and descending margins.
Piddlings? They are basically harmless losers but not yet totally collapsed. The Piddlings agonize in their glorious pomposity.
– HP tried TAIC-SIMO with Meego and Palm. After CEO changes we never know who is leading the company.
– Microsoft has its own businesses with enterprises, clod, browser and Office package. But Microsoft has in one year attacked TAIC-SIMO by buying Yahoo, Skype, Nokia
– Sony (inheritor of mother-Sony and SonyEricsson) is trying to move from losers to Piddlings butSony can‘t fight against Samsung with old weapons. Sony and Nokia are sisters of common curse: corporatism caramelized with arrogance, pomposity and pretending-to-be-Apple or wanna-be-Apple cultures (without any possibilities from leaders´ and visionaries´ dimension to realize it). When Sony’s biggest problem is not to understand TAIC-SIMO business model it is obvious that Sony’s new CEO Kazuo Hirai can´t alone change the company to success. They need an innovative, visionary and draconian CCO, Chief Creative Officer.
– Apple stays for many years alone behind the Wall and enjoys its stable position. The only problem Apple faces is to find a visionary leader with street credibility. Any in-house person is not going to survive as Apple CCO, and there are only five (5) competent persons globally available to take up the gauntlet. I have the luxury to know two of them.
– The charts expose only one crucial factor: Only companies which have a visionary leader with street credibility can innovate, execute and survive.
– The biggest problem ever is to find visionary leaders with street credibility. Especially difficult it is to find leaders to Screen & Internet & Media & Operator businesses (Technology – Access – Interest – Channel) businesses. Only Steve Jobs was a 360 degree leader, when Page-Brin together are somewhere 270 degrees, Jeff Bezos alone 269 degrees, Kazuo Hirai 179 and Stephen Elop 25.
– How to help Apple, Larry, Sergey, Jeff, Stephen and Kazuo? Let’s find them a real leader for the future businesses. Well, nobody can help Google and Apple and it also is hard to help Amazon. But Sony and Nokia really need help. Perhaps Sony is the only one who can benefit from a visionary CCO with street credibility because CEO has totally different role in the company.
– The day when declining companies hire competent CCOs I’ll update the charts and Easter Eggs above. Perhaps the Losers become Piddlings, the Piddlings become Potentials.
2nd Feb 2012, Juhani Risku, Helsinki Finland